Even though twice as many people nominated for the Hugo Awards this year versus last year (4,032 vs. 2,122), the Rabid Puppies slate managed to take more than three-quarters of the nomination slots. How did this happen?
Using statistical models, Rocket Stack Rank’s Greg Hullender and Chaos Horizon’s Brandon Kempner estimate the number of Puppy supporters at around 200 (Hullender) or between 250 and 480 (Kempner). Roughly the same as last year, and between five and ten percent of the total ballots cast. It seems counterintuitive that the same number of Puppies could dominate a ballot with double the total number of voters, but it’s quite possible: last year they had so many more votes than they needed (see the last year’s Hugo Award statistics, especially the nomination statistics beginning on page 18) that even if you were to double the votes received by the non-slate candidates, the Puppy slates would still have dominated — though a few more non-slate candidates would have made the final ballot. Which is probably what happened this year. We’ll see in August, when the counts are released.
Previously: Puppy Count.